The US Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed past the 100 mark today, marking a first in 2026. The move is underpinned by a tense macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, with the ongoing Middle East conflict serving as the primary catalyst.
→ Investors are moving away from riskier assets, including equities and emerging market currencies, and shifting into the US dollar, widely regarded as a safe-haven currency during periods of global uncertainty.
→ Reports from Iran about a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, alongside attacks on fuel infrastructure, have driven oil prices higher, amplifying concerns over global inflation.
→ Strong US economic data also support the greenback, as yesterday’s labour market figures showed unemployment remaining stable.
DXY Technical Outlook
On the morning of 9 March, analysis of the DXY chart highlighted:
→ An updated ascending channel (marked in blue), within which the index set its yearly high at that point;
→ Signs that the index could begin to stabilise following previous fluctuations.
From 9 to 12 March, the chart displayed a modest pullback followed by renewed upward momentum, contained within the prior week’s range:
→ Support: 98.60
→ Resistance: 99.68
Recent developments, however, have allowed bulls to gather strength and push the index higher within the blue channel. In essence, earlier fluctuations represented a balance between supply and demand, but as of 13 March, buyers appear to be asserting control, willing to pay a premium for the US dollar.
The market currently shows signs of overbought conditions:
→ RSI has exceeded 70;
→ Prices are trading above the upper boundary of the channel that had constrained them since late January.
A small pullback in the near term is possible, but it is unlikely to alter the broader upward trend.
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